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REFORMASI WEEKLY REVIEW
SUMMARY OVERVIEW
18 July 2014

Election Results: From ‘DB1’ tabulation forms uploaded from 80 percent of the country’s 497 districts, observers note that Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo (‘Jokowi’) leads with 52 percent of the vote, versus 48 percent for Lt Gen (ret) Prabowo Subianto. This is unlikely to change appreciably as data collection reaches 100 percent. Corroborating data is arising from other ‘crowd sourced’ compilations of forms uploaded to the official site of the General Election Commission (KPU). This virtually assures that the KPU will announce Widodo the winner on 21 or 22 July. But Prabowo’s camp has been rejecting and denigrating each new finding supporting Widodo, and they may therefore do the same for the KPU’s results. If so, the matter will hinge on the Constitutional Court. Despite the obvious balance of evidence, how the court would rule will be unclear: it has egregiously manipulated district level elections since 2012, and its reshuffled roster is untested. A key factor may be the justices’ assessment of the mood of the elite. In recent days, few prominent politicians or religious leaders have echoed Prabowo’s claims that the ‘real count’ favors him. This may give the court pause, precluding it from overturning the result. The court’s deadline for a verdict would be 21 August (Page 2). Of the four polling firms with Quick Counts (‘PVTs’) identifying Prabowo as the winner, none underwent auditing by the Association of Public Opinion and Survey Institutions (Persepsi). Conversely, six firms that identified Widodo as the winner passed audits; the Prabowo camp responded by denouncing Persepsi’s bias (p. 7).

Politics: In denouncing the partisan slant of the Jakarta Post, Prabowo produced an unseemly display of anger that has appeared on YouTube. The clip has garnered far more viewers than the dowdy English language daily ever would. During the campaign, Prabowo maintained a remarkable degree of tact, but this may now be dissipating amid adversity (p. 10). Parties in Prabowo’s nominating alliance showed solidarity by declaring a “permanent coalition”, but fragilities are already apparent. In particular, no senior Partai Demokrat figure attended the declaration (p. 12).

Justice: An adverse verdict in a Bank Century trial escalates risks for the financial system (p. 14). The arrest of two teachers from the Jakarta International School (Jis), on charges of sexual assault of kindergarten boys, elevates a highly charged case that will focus scrutiny on the professionalism of Indonesia’s corruption plagued police (p. 16).

Appointments: Dino Pati Djalal will be vice foreign minister for three months (p. 17).

Reformasi Weekly Review provides timely, relevant and independent analysis on Indonesian political and policy news. Delivered electronically every Friday, Reformasi Weekly is written by Kevin O’Rourke, author of the book Reformasi. For subscription information please contact. Reformasi Weekly is a product of PT Reformasi Info Sastra.
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